Cashless Economy in Russia 2030: Scenarios for the Market and Industry
Over the last 5 to 10 years the cashless economy has evolved from an abstract concept to a tangible reality. Russia is just a few steps away from the new economy, however, when it comes and what it will look like is still unclear.
On the one hand, old habits are strong: Russians find it difficult to stop paying with cash. On the other hand, new trends formulate the configuration of the future cashless economy. Key uncertainties are concentrated in the behavior of economic agents and the structure of the external environment: the economy is fluctuating between proactivity and reactivity (in agents’ behavior) and between centralization and decentralization (in the systems structures). The dominance of one or another trend will influence the resulting cashless economy in Russia.
Recognizing the necessity of pursuing strategic actions in the new economy motivated us to create scenarios for a cashless economy in Russia in 2030. We define cashless economy as the state without barriers for any payment method (cash or cashless) at any time and, when the major market participants are aware of their benefits, from using every existing payment method. Apart from that, a cashless economy is going beyond the payments industry and needs to take into account a wider range of effects.
Scenarios resulted from a foresight session, a series of expert interviews and the work of a task group on scenario dynamics that included representatives of all the key agents in the cashless economy. We offered experts a certain structure but decided not to make it binding, in order to get more insights from them.
The results of this project will show users an independent analysis of the industry in the long run and help to identify alternative options for a cashless economy. The proposed scenarios are in no way the most probable future options. On the contrary, they show alternative configurations of a cashless economy in Russia. Understanding all possible options might expand the strategies of the agents, e.g. by including opinions that were not taken into consideration before. The results obtained are a foundation for further discussion and direction for developing new projects. The proposed scenarios will be useful to everyone related to the economy and especially to the market for cashless retail payment services. Scenarios will help them formulate long-term strategies, including regulation, for the sustainable development of the Russian economy.
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